By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 2 Mar 22
With the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) being released, itâs important to revisit the climate scenarios that are its centerpiece. These scenarios form the basis of the climate science communityâs modeling and projections, which in turn affects governance and investment decisions across the world. Trillions of dollars and the policymaking of the entire planet thus ride upon these climate scenarios, and so the cost of getting things wrong is extremely high. Scenarios past and present The previous generation of climate scenarios published in the Fifth Assessment Report in 2014 were known as …
The UN climate panel still doesnât understand technology â and it matters Read More »
With the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) being released, itâs important to revisit the climate scenarios that are its centerpiece. These scenarios form the basis of the climate science communityâs modeling and projections, which in turn affects governance and investment decisions across the world. Trillions of dollars and the policymaking of the …
The UN climate panel still doesnât understand technology â and it matters Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 7 Feb 22
âWhat about the Jevons Paradox?â This is a common refrain in environmental discourse. Itâs another way of asking, âwonât new technology always just create more problems than it solves?â William Stanley Jevons was an English economist and mathematician who noticed in 1865 that, paradoxically, the consumption of coal actually increased when technological progress improved the efficiency of steam engines. Efficiency lowers costs, which lowers prices, which increases demand. And, sometimes, the increase in demand is so disproportionately large that overall consumption actually grows. This outcome came to be known as the Jevons Effect, or Jevons Paradox. The Jevons Effect …
âWhat about the Jevons Paradox?â This is a common refrain in environmental discourse. Itâs another way of asking, âwonât new technology always just create more problems than it solves?â William Stanley Jevons was an English economist and mathematician who noticed in 1865 that, paradoxically, the consumption of coal actually increased when technological progress improved the efficiency of steam engines. …
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 2 Dec 21
We are witnessing the start of the most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like others throughout history, this disruption is the result of a convergence of several key technologies â namely, solar photovoltaics, onshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries (SWB). A 100% SWB energy system is possible as soon as 2030 in regions that choose to lead, and because energy accounts for over half of all greenhouse gas emissions, the clean disruption of this sector will be a large part of how we can reduce emissions by 90% by 2035.  A common question that arises …
We are witnessing the start of the most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century. Like others throughout history, this disruption is the result of a convergence of several key technologies â namely, solar photovoltaics, onshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries (SWB). A 100% SWB energy system is possible as soon as 2030 in regions that choose …
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 22 Nov 21
This is part 2 of a series. See part 1 on ‘How Prosperity Solves Problems’ Understandable despair The trouble with climate change â as I explained the Part 1 of this series â is that the incumbent authorities to which the public looks for guidance, including most especially the scientific community, have failed to provide a coherent and compelling plan for how to correct course. This understandably leads to despair. Being told that the way to meet the enormous challenge of climate change is with personal sacrifice, lifestyle change, and other forms of individual austerity rather than with collective …
Restoring Our Faith in Progress: Part 2 â How Science Justifies Optimism Read More »
This is part 2 of a series. See part 1 on ‘How Prosperity Solves Problems’ Understandable despair The trouble with climate change â as I explained the Part 1 of this series â is that the incumbent authorities to which the public looks for guidance, including most especially the scientific community, have failed to provide a coherent and compelling …
Restoring Our Faith in Progress: Part 2 â How Science Justifies Optimism Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 22 Nov 21
Decision-makers at the COP26 UN climate summit might do well to remind themselves of a game called âSix Degrees of Kevin Baconâ. Because only by understanding the interconnection of the worldâs problems can we recognize how they can be rapidly solved by addressing them systemically at the root. Invented in the 1990s by three college students, âSix Degrees of Kevin Baconâ was based on the idea that prolific actor Kevin Bacon has appeared in films with a vast number of other actors. For example, Arnold Schwarzenegger was in the movie âDaveâ with Laura Linney who was in âMystic Riverâ with …
How Kevin Bacon Can Save the Planet and Regenerate the Earth Read More »
Decision-makers at the COP26 UN climate summit might do well to remind themselves of a game called âSix Degrees of Kevin Baconâ. Because only by understanding the interconnection of the worldâs problems can we recognize how they can be rapidly solved by addressing them systemically at the root. Invented in the 1990s by three college students, âSix Degrees of Kevin …
How Kevin Bacon Can Save the Planet and Regenerate the Earth Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 10 Nov 21
During COP 26, as he was on route to the G20 summit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had an extraordinary message. Civilization could collapse âlike the Roman empireâ, he warned, âunless we get this right in tackling climate change.â  âHumanity, civilization and society can go backwards as well as forwards and when they start to go wrong, they can go wrong at extraordinary speed,â he said.  The UK Prime Ministerâs recognition that civilizations can experience a life cycle of growth and collapse is a milestone. But understanding whatâs really driving the risk of going âbackwardsâ is crucial to navigating our …
The Next Economy: Why the growth and degrowth debate misses the point Read More »
During COP 26, as he was on route to the G20 summit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had an extraordinary message. Civilization could collapse âlike the Roman empireâ, he warned, âunless we get this right in tackling climate change.â  âHumanity, civilization and society can go backwards as well as forwards and when they start to go wrong, they can go …
The Next Economy: Why the growth and degrowth debate misses the point Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 8 Nov 21
Global business groups are calling on governments to pursue an international strategy on carbon pricing at the COP26 UN climate summit. While well-intentioned, the reality is we donât need carbon pricing to create a level-playing field in global markets. We just need to end trillions of dollars of subsidies to the coal, oil and gas industries: because these industries are already stranded. Carbon polluters, like any polluters, should pay for the damages they impose on societies. But carbon pricing is not the most effective way to accelerate the clean energy disruption and get to net zero. Carbon pricing takes mainly …
Global business groups are calling on governments to pursue an international strategy on carbon pricing at the COP26 UN climate summit. While well-intentioned, the reality is we donât need carbon pricing to create a level-playing field in global markets. We just need to end trillions of dollars of subsidies to the coal, oil and gas industries: because these industries are …
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 5 Nov 21
OK, DoomerâŠÂ Doom and gloom are everywhere, and not just because of what the COVID-19 pandemic has done to societies and economies across the globe over the last 18 months. A deeper contagion of pessimism has been spreading as well. The belief that we are doomed by climate change, and that all other human progress has been for nothing, is a pathogenic idea that has infected an entire generation worldwide.  Although it is dead wrong, this idea is far more pernicious and destructive than is widely appreciated.  At the individual level, despair over climate change and the false belief that …
Restoring Our Faith in Human Progress: Part 1 â How Prosperity Solves Problems Read More »
OK, DoomerâŠÂ Doom and gloom are everywhere, and not just because of what the COVID-19 pandemic has done to societies and economies across the globe over the last 18 months. A deeper contagion of pessimism has been spreading as well. The belief that we are doomed by climate change, and that all other human progress has been for nothing, is …
Restoring Our Faith in Human Progress: Part 1 â How Prosperity Solves Problems Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 2 Nov 21
Over 100 world leaders have pledged to end, and even reverse, deforestation by 2030 at the COP26 UN climate summit. And over 30 of the worldâs biggest financial companies have promised to end investment linked to deforestation. But in 2014, a similar âlandmarkâ agreement was reached â and this didnât slow deforestation at all. Part of the problem is that decision-makers are locked into trying to solve problems within the framework of the incumbent paradigm. But this paradigm is about to be dramatically transformed, opening up entirely new ways of thinking about forests. Far from focusing purely on âband aidâ …
The Great Land Liberation and the opportunity for reforestation Read More »
Over 100 world leaders have pledged to end, and even reverse, deforestation by 2030 at the COP26 UN climate summit. And over 30 of the worldâs biggest financial companies have promised to end investment linked to deforestation. But in 2014, a similar âlandmarkâ agreement was reached â and this didnât slow deforestation at all. Part of the problem is that …
The Great Land Liberation and the opportunity for reforestation Read More »
By: The Posts Author | Posted on: 27 Oct 21
Technology disruptions already underway in the energy, transportation, and food sectors have extraordinary implications for climate change. These three disruptions alone, driven by just eight technologies, can directly eliminate over 90% of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide within 15 years. Our previous research has shown that these disruptions are inevitable. Solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) will disrupt coal, oil, and gas. Autonomous electric vehicles (A-EVs) providing transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) will disrupt internal combustion engines and private vehicle ownership. And precision fermentation and cellular agriculture (PFCA) will disrupt meat, milk, and other animal products. The three disruptions are already unfolding simultaneously, …
The 9 Profound Implications of Rethinking Climate Change Read More »
Technology disruptions already underway in the energy, transportation, and food sectors have extraordinary implications for climate change. These three disruptions alone, driven by just eight technologies, can directly eliminate over 90% of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide within 15 years. Our previous research has shown that these disruptions are inevitable. Solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) will disrupt coal, oil, …
The 9 Profound Implications of Rethinking Climate Change Read More »
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