RUSSIA LOOKED STRONGER THAN IT TRULY IS
We have been accustomed to thinking of Russia as the heir to the USSR and leader of the Warsaw Pact, and thus as a dormant superpower. But since Poland, the Baltics, and other countries have switched sides, and the economic gap has widened, the new power relation between East and West has shifted far away from Russia’s interests.
In the late eighties, the countries of the Warsaw Pact had a population of roughly 400 million, versus NATO’s 600 million at the time (toady its 154 million versus NATO’s 951 million). Its troops were based deep into Germany and Central Europe. As of such, the Cold War of the 20th century was a more equal confrontation than the one today between the 30 NATO countries (+ 20 or so strategic partners) and Russia and its Belarusian satellite.
Russia has impressed an image upon the world as an effective military force with its former successful operations in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, and Syria. But the scale and nature of the current operation are different: Ukraine is geographically the second biggest country in Europe, with a population a little less than one third of Russia’s, and it appears that Russia intends to conquer the entire country — something it never even tried with the invasion of the small country of Georgia back in 2008.
The Russian system has a vast intelligence deficiency. Basically, there are poor feedback loops of information, as information flows are curtailed in a KGB style. Lower-ranking Russian officers work on a strong need-to-know basis and their narrative is dependent on the Russian propaganda apparatus, which makes it more difficult for them to self-organize in the context of complex operations and the situations that face them. Apparently, Russian soldiers haven’t been told where they’re going and what they’re going to do. Secrecy like that may be a virtue in the KGB, but having clueless soldiers on a battlefield is a big weakness in any army — especially if they are going into combat. From what I see, it wouldn’t be surprising if the average Westerner watching the news has a better understanding of what’s going on than low level officers in the Russian army.
There are also significant problems with the effectiveness of the Russian military apparatus. Here, the devil is in the detail: Yes, Russia has many tanks, artillery pieces, and aircrafts, but how effectively these can be used all depends on how well-oiled the entire apparatus is. And serious cracks are showing in the facade of how well this military operates in practice: Analysts have reportedly been “shocked” at what they observe. Russia has a lot of fighter jets, for example, but their efficiency is severely hampered by inexperienced pilots and lacking munitions. The same can be said about tanks running out of fuel. And if we are to believe the content of this article, Russian troops in Ukraine have even been overheard complaining about lacking logistical support and even been talking back emotionally against orders given. There are even reports of Russians sabotaging their vehicles to avoid going into battle.
Given that resistance to the war is strong even within Russia, the position of the Russian government is currently not a very strong one and is likely to grow as sanctions take their toll, possibly breaking the country’s economy—at least not in the long run.
[For 9 other insights into the Ukraine-Russia war, click the link to my article on Medium in the comments field]
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