PUTIN IS ACTING MORE “RATIONALLY” THAN IT APPEARS (BUT HE IS JUST ABOUT TO LOSE IT)
Much ink has been spilled to gauge the sanity or insanity of the autocratic Russian President. If you listen to some of the more astute analyses out there, it becomes clear that the Russian leadership are in a long-term decline and may feel that their hand is forced in the matter:
– If Ukraine joins NATO and the EU, with more than 40 million people switching sides, Russia will no longer be a geopolitical powerhouse. If Russia could add the former Soviet republics, Russia could double its population. And if they could submit the biggest of these, namely Ukraine, to Russian rule, the likelihood of the remaining ones following suit would be that much greater.
– If Ukraine joins NATO, and there is already an ongoing conflict in Donbas and Luhansk, the country could risk being attacked by NATO forces as “an attack on one is an attack on all”, and that would be from a very wide front of 2700 kilometers in Ukraine.
– Geopolitically, because of the large steppe that stretches from northern Europe and widens towards the Ural Mountains, Russia becomes harder to defend from Western attacks the farther its zone of military control is pushed eastwards. Ukraine joining NATO would more or less leave Russia at the West’s mercy.
– As long as Ukraine is not under Russian control, Russia loses income as it has to pay tariffs on gas pipes passing through the country.
– Ukraine has found its own gas deposits and could soon be a real competitor to Russia’s main income. And if all of a sudden there would be a democratic alternative to Russia’s gas, the West would be likely to trade with the former.
– Ukraine controls the water flow through a canal that goes down to Russian-controlled Crimea, and this region is so dry that its 2½ million inhabitants are currently a big economic drain on Russia, as Ukraine has refused to open the canal.
Taken together, the Russian leadership’s days are numbered if they do not seize control over Ukraine.
Of course, the truly rational course of action would be to peacefully dismantle the current rule, democratize the country, diversify the economy, and become a trusted member of the international community. But as the leadership is invested in the current imperial project and could suffer grim consequences if they lost power (due to corruption, crimes, and so forth), it is “rational” from their perspective to take the gamble and try to seize Ukraine.
However, as the situation becomes increasingly dire for Putin and his allies, we are seeing that emotional over-reactions and acts of desperation may increase, as telling signs of mounting romanticism and paranoia suggest.
[For 9 other insights into the Ukraine-Russia war, click the link to Hanzi Freinacht’s article on Medium in the comments field]
Tagged with :