AVOID A SPLIT INTO A NEW COLD WAR — BY WINNING THE WAR AND CAUSING REGIME CHANGE IN RUSSIA!
It is highly unlikely that the Russian regime will survive in its current form if it loses the war.
Think about the consequences if Russia would successfully capture and control Ukraine, and from there on secure its geopolitical and economic goals. When would the West be able to lift its sanctions? Not for ages. The world would effectively be split into two Cold War spheres of influence, where Russia and China would approach one another, which would further isolate them from the West and prop up their respective autocratic regimes. We would have a new Cold War, one that would in all likelihood last for decades.
In terms of climate change and other transnational “wicked issues” that require deepened planetary solidarity and mutual trust between cultures and countries, this would be nothing short of catastrophic. Tensions, militarism, fears, and short-sighted survivalist values around the world would be stoked for decades on end, and cosmopolitanism and cooperation would suffer. This would further inflame wicked issues that lie at the foundations of our global civilization and thus eventually increase the risk of rising conflict (a new World War, or just a hundred cruel proxy wars in Africa and elsewhere). Eventually, the risk of a collapse of the world system would increase from “significant” to “overwhelming”.
Here I am, just writing a Medium article about it, and it all somehow feels awfully petty in regard to the stakes at hand. But I really wish to stress this: the price of a new Cold War at this point in history is one that we simply cannot afford to pay. It must be avoided.
So “we” (feel free to exclude yourself from my use of “we” if you disagree with me) have to win the war — and fast. If we do, Russia will likely experience a regime change within some years (don’t forget that Russia is to hold a presidential election in 2024, or at least pretend to), and that could open the entire spectrum of possibilities to co-construct a more equitable, ecological, and effectively governed world order. A Moscow we could talk to, trust, and mutually demilitarize the world with — what a dream!
As Russia and international security expert Keir Giles argued in The Guardian already on February the 25th, Russia may now finally be in a position similar to Western empires (France, Britain) when they lost their status as colonial overlords — fairly late in the 20th century. They didn’t go down without a fight. It took harsh and humiliating defeats at the hands of colonial rebels reasserting their autonomy and dignity. But eventually, they (more or less) accepted their roles as “just another country” with no special right to dictate the fates of other nations. That needs to happen for Russia as well.
Another historical parallel: When did the two Russian Revolutions occur? In 1917 — at the hour of World War I, when the war had lost popular support and the economy was faltering. The German emperor sent Vladimir Lenin and stuffed his pockets full of money to go back home and revolt. The whole operation was a bit more successful than the German Emperor had anticipated (and his own government was toppled shortly after, in the German Revolution).
Now, this time, unfortunately, the Germans sent back the contemporary “Lenin” (opposition leader Alexei Navalny) a little too early, and he’s already in a Russian prison. Still, though, we may be seeing new turns of events here. Watch this development closely!
[For 9 other action points on the Ukraine-Russia war, click the link to my article on Medium in the comments field]
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